Some people have heard about the Conference where Microsoft showed their 3 screen ideal linked together using HTML 5.0.
Last year at this same event the screens were brought together with Silverlight. So this has caused a lot of hype. Is Silverlight being canned for HTML 5.0? I think not.
I think it's a miscommunication.
HTML5.0 is cross-platform. that is the point. Some people will have heard that Silverlight is supposed to be cross-platform too but they've since said that it would be impossible to have a plugin working on every single platform with the amount of devices now available to consumers. They still plan to have it working on Windows and Mac and as the software platform for Windows Phone 7.0
Silverlight is an extension for web that allows us to do custom functions based on their framework (which is a subset of .Net).
I don't believe a framework like .Net (or the JavaFx or ActionScript-based equivalents) can be replaced by a web convention such as HTML 5.0.
Any function or library in HTML5.0 would have to be supported by EVERY browser and EVERY phone. These functions need to be generic such that all web developers accross the sphere can use them.
Think about Javascript and HTML as is... The world does not use those in a uniform fashion and I don't believe they really can because that is the nature of scripts and languages.
As soon as we wish our language to be custom up to a certain point - that is, we decided that this particular code library is good enough to be packaged and distributed as a framework - we have a situation. Some frameworks aim to make everything possible using the convention such as JQuery but other frameworks are built on disparate foundations - like .Net and Java reject the web browser capability to offer a richer capability that plays through a plugin.
That is why silverlight currently exists. We want all the fancy IDE's, build tools, .Net, and all of that that has gone into it. We can't have exactly that with HTML - so there is a plugin. The bonus is that is becomes extendable. Silverlight uses TFS integration, Visual Studio 2010, Blend and other tools from Expression Studio by Microsoft. These tools have different uses and merits and are different from provider to provider. That is the great environment that RIA is giving developers.
I believe that as long as there will be third party frameworks, including the Adobe ones, the .Net and the Javas of the world, there will be framework-based RIA for web. And I'm quite certain that frameworks as a concept are here to stay.
Having said that, the size of that market for these may well change. I believe the market for Silverlight will increase as long as Microsoft and their partners can explain clearly to people: This is a way that people in my organisation or your organisation can produce software that works, works well, works easily, works on many platforms... Those benefits will still be true for silverlight 10, 11, 12 and onwards.
It is for these reasons that I think there is, and will continue to be, a line in the sand between plug-ins for RIA and base-line conventions for HTML support in browsers accross the globe.
Now all we need is for Silverlight to support Linux, Android, and all the Apple devices :(
Regards